Alive's Brad Keefe picks the big winners on Oscar night (and all of the little ones that will help you win your office Oscar pool)

Best Picture

"127 Hours"
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

Prediction: The awards tide shifted hard toward "The King's Speech" late. It was Oscar bait from the beginning, and now it's a juggernaut.

Brad's pick: "The Social Network" is the most entertaining movie about a website ever. And there are eight other nominees I like better than "King's Speech."

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"
Joel and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"

Prediction: Tom Hooper's surprise win for "The King's Speech" in the Director's Guild barely nudges him ahead of David Fincher ("The Social Network") ... though Fincher is overdue.

Brad's pick: Darren Aronofsky made the one of the creepiest Oscar nominees since "Rosemary's Baby," and he made a sex scene between Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis somehow not feel gratuitous.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"

Prediction: Colin Firth's stammering monarch in "King's Speech" is pretty much a shoo-in. Ironic, because he was far more deserving - yet he lost - for last year's "A Single Man."

Brad's pick: James Franco was an awesome one-man show in "127 Hours" - and he's hosting! - but I wish Jesse Eisenberg's portrayal of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg would get its due.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

Prediction: Natalie Portman, and not just because of the ballet stuff. Her transformation from mouse to monster was what made "Black Swan." Plus, everyone wants to see an acceptance speech in a $30,000 maternity dress.

Brad's pick: Portman is actually the one predictable win I'll be happy with, but a win for the quiet but explosive Michelle Williams would help more people see the amazing "Blue Valentine."

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
John Hawkes,"Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Prediction: Christian Bale's coulda-been boxer turned crack addict in "The Fighter" is the stuff Oscars are made of. He steals the screen in the best ensemble film of the year.

Brad's pick: I really dug the surprise nomination of John Hawkes for "Winter's Bone," but I'd love to see Mark Ruffalo on the podium. He was my favorite part of "The Kids Are All Right."

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

Prediction: Melissa Leo for her overbearing mom in "The Fighter" will win. Some worry that fellow "Fighter" actress Amy Adams will split those votes. I don't think Adams will get many ...

Brad's pick: ... which is a shame, because I thought Adams was the better actress in a more understated role. Young Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit" would also be a fun surprise.

Best Animated Film

"How to Train Your Dragon"
"The Illusionist"
"Toy Story 3"

Prediction: This category was pretty much just added so the Academy could give something to Pixar every year they make a movie. "Toy Story 3."

Brad's pick: I thought "Toy Story 3" might just be a crass case of going to the well one too many times. But I melted.

Best Original Screenplay

"Another Year"
"The Fighter"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"

Prediction: Another "King's Speech" win. When you're on a roll, you're on a roll.

Brad's pick: Screenplay awards usually favor dialogue over story, but can we please give a prize for the mind-bendy layers of "Inception"? No one's going to write a grad school thesis dissecting "King's Speech."

Best Adapted Screenplay

"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone "

Prediction: Regardless of how "based on a true story" Aaron Sorkin's "Social Network" screenplay really is, dude made courtroom depositions about a website pop on the screen.

Brad's pick: No complaint here. That screenplay is the genius backbone of a great film.

Best Documentary

"Exit Through the Gift Shop"
"Inside Job"
"Waste Land "

Prediction: "Inside Job" is like "An Inconvenient Truth," only it's about Wall Street and the financial meltdown.

Brad's pick: Not only was it the best, most entertaining doc of the year, but if "Exit Through the Gift Shop" wins, maybe the elusive Banksy will make an appearance! (He won't.)

Best Foreign Film

"Biutiful" (Mexico)
"Dogtooth" (Greece)
"In a Better World" (Denmark)
"Incendies" (Canada)
"Outside the Law" (Algeria)

Prediction: The foreign film with a Hollywood-approved pedigree is Mexico's "Biutiful" - from current nominee Javier Bardem to previous nominee Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu.

Brad's pick: Tough to say, as most of these haven't trickled to Columbus yet. I'm rooting for the way-dark satire "Dogtooth," though.

Best Cinematography

"Black Swan"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
"True Grit "

Prediction: Can you believe nine-time nominee Roger Deakins has never won?! Me either. "True Grit" will be the one that gets him a statue.

Brad's pick: Watch "Black Swan" again, and try to figure out how Matthew Libatique danced around Natalie Portman on a mirrored set without revealing the camera.

Best Art Direction

"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 1"
"The King's Speech"
"True Grit"

Prediction: After a while, Academy members just keep checking off the same name over and over ... this year, that name is "The King's Speech."

Brad's pick: C'mon, almost everything on the screen in "Inception" was cool.

Best Costume Design

"Alice in Wonderland"
"I Am Love"
"The King's Speech"
"The Tempest"
"True Grit"

Prediction: I love when the technical awards allow for a fairly mediocre movie to say that it's an Oscar winner. This year, that movie will be Tim Burton's underwhelming "Alice in Wonderland."

Brad's pick: I'll be happy for "Alice" if it means one less award for "King's Speech."

Best Original Score

"How to Train Your Dragon"
"Inception," Hans Zimmer
"The King's Speech," Alexandre Desplat
"127 Hours," A.R. Rahman
"The Social Network," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Prediction: A soundtrack of bleeps and bloops winning an Oscar? Normally, no, but because "The Social Network" lent itself to the electronic touch, it could edge the more traditional nominees.

Brad's pick: If you listen carefully on Oscar night, you might hear this huge Nine Inch Nails fan shouting in glee if Trent Reznor gets to give an Oscar speech.

Best Original Song

"Coming Home" from "Country Strong"
"I See the Light" from "Tangled"
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours"
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3 "

Prediction: "We Belong Together" is a Randy Newman song in a Pixar movie. C'mon, people!

Brad's pick: As long as I don't have to listen to Gwyneth Paltrow goin' country, I'm fine with whatever wins.

Best Film Editing

"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"The King's Speech"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network "

Prediction: The slick pacing of "The Social Network" is some fine work, and it's a nice bone to throw it amid a "King's Speech" rush.

Brad's pick: For its claustrophobic setting, "127 Hours" is surprisingly lively. Thank the editors.

Best Makeup

"Barney's Version"
"The Way Back"
"The Wolfman "

Prediction: "The Wolfman" gets Rick Baker his seventh Oscar. Not bad.

Brad's pick: Oh, come on. Has anyone ever watched a movie just for the makeup? "Wolfman" is fine, I suppose.

Best Visual Effects

"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 1"
"Iron Man 2 "

Prediction: "Inception" is not only a visual marvel, it's the only one that's also got a Best Picture nomination.

Brad's pick: Did you see "Inception"? That movie was visually too cool to describe.

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

"Killing in the Name"
"Poster Girl"
"Strangers No More"
"Sun Come Up"
"The Warriors of Qiugang "

Prediction: It's a field full of social and political causes. I say multiple nominees about terrorism and war split votes, and the Chinese pollution doc "The Warriors of Qiugang" wins.

Brad's pick: I'm flying blind here, but "Poster Girl," which follows a female veteran of the Iraq war, holds the most promise.

Best Short Film (Animated)

"Day & Night"
"The Gruffalo"
"Let's Pollute"
"The Lost Thing"
"Madagascar, carnet de voyage "

Prediction: "Day & Night" is a Pixar short with a nod to old hand-drawn animation and a social message. That's a pretty good Oscar pedigree.

Brad's pick: If you can see the whimsical and fun "The Gruffalo," you should.

Best Short Film (Live Action)

"The Confession"
"The Crush"
"God of Love"
"Na Wewe"
"Wish 143 "

Prediction: "Na Wewe" takes on genocide in Africa in a poignant and surprisingly light way. It's the only short that is about something important.

Brad's pick: "God of Love" is a playfully jazzy little film that has both slickness and student-film charm.