Hollywood's annual night of self-celebration is upon us once again, and once again #OscarsSoWhite - which is really a symptom of the larger problem that #HollywoodsSoWhite. Still, if you're tuning in (hopefully to see them taken to task a bit for the lily-white slate of nominees), here are my predictions for who will win the major categories, as well as who I think actually deserves to. Sometimes they're even the same! (Not often.)

Hollywood's annual night of self-celebration is upon us once again, and once again #OscarsSoWhite - which is really a symptom of the larger problem that #HollywoodsSoWhite. Still, if you're tuning in (hopefully to see them taken to task a bit for the lily-white slate of nominees), here are my predictions for who will win the major categories, as well as who I think actually deserves to. Sometimes they're even the same! (Not often.)

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Room Spotlight

Who will win: "The Revenant" was a visceral piece of filmmaking. It's also kind of a slog, but it's the odds-on favorite and seems very likely to have a big night.

Who should win: On my personal list, I had ranked "Room" the highest of this lot, but I'd love to see "Spotlight" win, just so we can all look back fondly on journalism.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Big Short Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Room Spotlight

Who will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu will probably get the nod for "The Revenant," which is a shame, because his last entry ("Birdman") was more audacious and better.

Who should win: Speaking of audacity, did any major movie have more of it than "Fury Road"? George Miller's amazing reboot of his series deserves the accolades.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol Brie Larson, Room Jennifer Lawrence, Joy Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Who will win: Blanchett was fantastic in "Carol," but she wasn't even the best leading performance (more on that in a bit). Larson is this year's breakout, so she'll be at the podium and is less likely to trip than J-Law.

Who should win: This is actually the second time that Larson gave the best performance of the year (see "Short Term 12"). This one is well-deserved.

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo Matt Damon, The Martian Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Who will win: This is frankly a weak year in this category, which bodes well for Leo, who grunted through nearly three hours.

Who should win: Redmayne's performance was pure Oscar bait, and nobody saw "Trumbo," but I could live with Fassbender, even if "Steve Jobs" was a disappointment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight Rooney Mara, Carol Rachel McAdams, Spotlight Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Who will win: Speaking of breakouts, Vikander was in so many movies this year, and she was great in all of them. She was the best thing about "The Danish Girl."

Who should win: Mara shouldn't be in the category. She was clearly the co-lead in "Carol," but she also deserves something for that.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Big Short Tom Hardy, The Revenant Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Who will win: Hollywood wants Stallone to have a moment late in his career. He's deserving for "Creed." Let's hope he remembers his director and star, tho. #OscarsSoWhite

Who should win: Rylance was the key cog in Steven Spielberg's drum-tight thriller "Bridge of Spies." Not a chance, but it would be nice.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa Boy and the World Inside Out Shaun the Sheep Movie When Marnie Was There

Who will win: This category was created for Pixar. "Inside Out" was the studio's best movie in years, and it won't be hurt by the fact Pixar also had a dud in "The Good Dinosaur."

Who should win: Oscar has a long history of snubbing animated movies that depict cunnilingus, but it would be nice if the grown-up "Anomalisa" pulled off a stunning upset. (It won't.)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Carol The Hateful Eight Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Sicario

Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki is a living genius. That plus the wave of "Revenant" love should seal this.

Who should win: "Sicario" was slick. "Mad Max" was gorgeous and thrilling. But I don't think I'll ever vote against "Chivo." Lubezki can have all the Oscars, always.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short Brooklyn Carol The Martian Room

Who will win: Adam McCay and Charles Randolph made the sleazy details of the housing market crash pop and crackle with "The Big Short." Wonder how much the people in that room lost in said crash?

Who should win: "Room" was a small but powerful movie, and it's amazing that its screenplay was adapted by the author of the novel it was based on. Emma Donoghue did a great job translating for the screen.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridge of Spies Ex Machina Inside Out Spotlight Straight Outta Compton

Who will win: "Spotlight" was an ensemble piece, so this might be the only place it gets some deserved love.

Who should win: Well, since it was my top movie of 2015 and isn't nominated elsewhere, I'd love for "Ex Machina" to get some more attention.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Carol Cinderella The Danish Girl Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant

Who will win: "Fury Road" had that feral look down. Look for rags on the runway soon.

Who should win: Wait … "The Revenant" was nominated for this and "The Force Awakens" was not? I quit.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy Cartel Land The Look of Silence What Happened, Miss Simone? Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

Who will win: It's rare that any nominated documentary is particularly successful at the box-office, so "Amy" might just hold off a late push for "Cartel Land."

Who should win: "Amy" was also my top ranked doc of the year. It's remarkable.

BEST FILM EDITING

The Big Short Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Spotlight Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Who will win: "Fury Road" is one long car chase, but you never get visually lost. That's a testament of good editing.

Who should win: Please, just not "The Revenant."

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Embrace of the Serpent Mustang Son of Saul Theeb A War

Who will win: It's usually tough to call this, as these movies often haven't seen stateside release, but the subject matter and execution of the Holocaust story "Son of Saul" makes it a pretty solid shoo-in.

Who should win: "Son of Saul" is not an easy movie to watch, but it's an important one. Great storytelling.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Ex Machina Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Who will win: It's weird that such a runaway smash isn't more represented at the Oscars, but here's a token win for "The Force Awakens."

Who should win: If you think I'm going to argue against "Star Wars," you haven't been reading my reviews.